AI Sports Betting
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Step 7 of 8 • 8 min read

Bankroll Management & ROI Tracking

The #1 reason bettors go broke isn't bad picks—it's bad bankroll management. Master this skill and you'll survive variance to see long-term profits.

Why Most Bettors Go Broke

Imagine this: You have a 55% win rate (great for betting!) and +5% ROI. But you bet 20% of your bankroll per game. After a bad 5-game losing streak (which WILL happen), you've lost 67% of your bankroll. Game over.

Even with an edge, poor bankroll management = bankruptcy. This guide will ensure you never fall into that trap.

The Golden Rule: 1-5% Per Bet

The foundation of bankroll management is simple: Never risk more than 1-5% of your total bankroll on a single bet.

Bankroll Sizing Examples

Bankroll1% Unit2% Unit3% Unit5% Unit
$100$1$2$3$5
$500$5$10$15$25
$1,000$10$20$30$50
$5,000$50$100$150$250
$10,000$100$200$300$500

1-2% (Conservative)

Best for beginners or during learning phases. Protects you from variance while building experience.

3% (Standard)
Recommended

The sweet spot for most bettors. Balances growth potential with bankroll protection.

4-5% (Aggressive)

Only for experienced bettors with proven track records and high-confidence bets.

Advanced: The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates your optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds. It maximizes long-term bankroll growth.

Kelly Formula

Don't worry—our calculator does this for you!

Kelly % = (bp - q) / b
b = decimal odds - 1 (e.g., 2.0 odds = 1)
p = probability of winning (e.g., 0.55 for 55%)
q = probability of losing (1 - p)
Open Kelly Criterion Calculator

Tracking Your ROI (Return on Investment)

You can't improve what you don't measure. Tracking ROI is the difference between guessing if you're profitable and KNOWING you have an edge.

ROI Formula

Simple but powerful

ROI = (Total Profit / Total Amount Wagered) × 100
Example: Won $350 on $1,000 wagered = 35% ROI 🎉

What's a Good ROI?

3-5% ROI:Good
5-7% ROI:Great
7-10% ROI:Exceptional
10%+ ROI:Elite (rare)

Sample Size Matters

Under 50 bets: Too small, luck dominant
100-200 bets: Start seeing trends
500+ bets: Reliable data
1,000+ bets: High confidence in edge
Use ROI Tracker Calculator

When to Increase Your Bet Size

As your bankroll grows and you prove your edge, you can gradually increase bet sizes. Here's when it's safe to level up.

✅ Increase Stakes When...

1.
Your bankroll has grown 50%+: If you started with $1,000 and now have $1,500, you can bet 3% of $1,500 ($45) instead of $30.
2.
Proven track record (200+ bets): You have data showing consistent +ROI over hundreds of bets.
3.
High-confidence opportunities: A consensus +7% EV bet across multiple tools warrants a larger unit.
4.
You're emotionally ready: Bigger bets = bigger swings. Only increase if you can handle the variance.

🚫 Never Increase When...

Chasing losses: You lost 3 bets in a row so you double your next bet to "win it back." This is gambler's fallacy.
On a hot streak: Won 5 in a row? Great! But that doesn't change your long-term edge. Stick to your system.
Negative ROI: If you're down money overall, you don't have a proven edge yet. Keep bet sizes small.
Emotional betting: Betting on your favorite team or trying to "make rent money" leads to disaster.

Realistic Bankroll Growth Example

From $1,000 to $5,000 in One Year

Assumptions: 5% ROI, 3% unit size, 250 bets/year

MonthBankrollUnit Size (3%)Monthly BetsProfit
1$1,000$3020+$30
3$1,200$3620+$36
6$1,800$5420+$54
9$3,000$9020+$90
12$5,000$15020+$150

Key insight: Compound growth is powerful. Your unit size grows as your bankroll grows, accelerating profits over time.

Essential Tools for Bankroll Management

Bankroll Calculator

Calculate unit sizes instantly

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Optimal bet sizing formula

ROI Tracker

Track performance over time

🎯 5 Unbreakable Principles

  1. 1
    Never bet more than 5% on a single game
    Even "locks" lose. Protect your bankroll.
  2. 2
    Track every single bet
    You can't improve without data. Use a spreadsheet or our ROI tracker.
  3. 3
    Adjust unit sizes as bankroll changes
    Up $500? Increase units. Down $300? Decrease units. Stay proportional.
  4. 4
    Never chase losses
    Bad days happen. Stick to your system and trust the math.
  5. 5
    Withdraw profits regularly
    Once per month, take 25-50% of profits out. Enjoy your winnings!

🏆 Ready for Advanced Strategies?

You've mastered the fundamentals. Time for the complete guide.

You now understand bankroll management and ROI tracking—the foundations of long-term success. Ready to take it to the next level with advanced AI betting strategies?